Forecasting the success of megaprojects with Judgmental methods

Forecasting the success of megaprojects is a very difficult and important task because ofthe complexity of such projects, as well as the large capital investment that is required forthe completion of these projects. One could argue that forecasting is not needed in thiscontext: the master Gantt chart of the tasks with assigned person-hours plus therespective Bill of Materials should suffice for an accurate estimation of the duration andcost of a project. If that was the case then every project would finish on time and on budget– but this is far from true as the numerous examples attest: HS2, Channel Tunnel, majorIT public projects in NHS, to name a few. In this research, we employ judgmentalforecasting methods to predict the success of megaprojects in as series of forecastingexperiments. In the first experiment,the participants forecast for one megaproject ('spaceexploration') with Unaided Judgment (UJ), Structured Analogies (SA) and InteractionGroups (IG) with IG showing the best results since IG>SA>SA. In the second experiment,we use a second megaproject ('a major recreational facility in the very city centre of amajor cosmopolis') and see separately the success in terms of excesses in the budget andthe duration of the project. Furthermore, the participants forecast the extent to which thesocio-economic benefits are realised. We do analyse three different stakeholderperspectives: that of the a) project manager, b) funder(s), and c) the public. We do controlfor two levels of expertise – novices, and semi-experts, and the participants use UJ, SA, IGand Delphi (D) as well, resulting IG>D>SA>UJ. In the third and final experiment, wequalitatively explore the use of scenarios in forecasting the success of megaprojects

Relative performance of judgemental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects

Forecasting the success of megaprojects, such as the Olympic Games or space exploration missions, is a very difficult and important task because of the complexity of such projects and the large capital investment they require. Megaproject stakeholders do not typically employ formal forecasting methods, relying instead on Impact Assessments and/or Cost Benefit Analysis; these tools do not necessarily include forecasts, and thus there is no accountability. This study evaluates the effectiveness of judgemental methods towards successfully forecasting the accomplishment of specific megaproject objectives – when the measure of success is the collective accomplishment of such objectives. We compare the performance of three judgemental methods used by a group of 55 semi-experts: Unaided Judgement (UJ), semi- Structured Analogies (s-SA), and Interaction Groups (IG). The empirical evidence reveals that the use of s-SA leads to accuracy improvement compared with UJ. This improvement is amplified further when introducing pooling of analogies through teamwork in IG. Keywords: Judgemental Forecasting; Megaprojects; Semi-Experts; Structured Analogies; Interaction Group

Deep learning with long short-term memory networks and random forests for demand forecasting in multi-channel retail

This paper proposes a novel forecasting method that combines the deep learning method - long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and random forest (RF). The proposed method can model complex relationships of both temporal and regression type which gives it an edge in accuracy over other forecasting methods. We evaluated the new method on a real-world multivariate dataset from a multi-channel retailer. We benchmark the forecasting performance of the new proposition against neural networks, multiple regression, ARIMAX, LSTM networks, and RF. We employed forecasting performance metrics to measure bias, accuracy, and variance, and the empirical evidence suggests that the new proposition is (statistically) significantly better. Furthermore, our method ranks the explanatory variables in terms of their relative importance. The empirical evaluations are replicated for longer forecasting horizons, and online and offline channels and the same conclusions hold; thus, advocating for the robustness of our forecasting proposition as well as the suitability in multi-channel retail demand forecasting

Apoptosis and proliferation in the trigeminal placode

The neurogenic trigeminal placode develops from the crescent-shaped panplacodal primordium which delineates the neural plate anteriorly. We show that, in Tupaia belangeri, the trigeminal placode is represented by a field of focal ectodermal thickenings which over time changes positions from as far rostral as the level of the forebrain to as far caudal as opposite rhombomere 3. Delamination proceeds rostrocaudally from the ectoderm adjacent to the rostral midbrain, and contributes neurons to the trigeminal ganglion as well as to the ciliary ganglion/oculomotor complex. Proliferative events are centered on the field prior to the peak of delamination. They are preceded, paralleled and, finally, outnumbered by apoptotic events which proceed rostrocaudally from non-delaminating to delaminating parts of the field. Apoptosis persists upon regression of the placode, thereby exhibiting a massive “wedge” of apoptotic cells which includes the postulated position of the “ventrolateral postoptic placode” (Lee et al. in Dev Biol 263:176–190, 2003), merges with groups of lens-associated apoptotic cells, and disappears upon lens detachment. In conjunction with earlier work (Washausen et al. in Dev Biol 278:86–102, 2005) our findings suggest that apoptosis contributes repeatedly to the disintegration of the panplacodal primordium, to the elimination of subsets of premigratory placodal neuroblasts, and to the regression of placodes

Bmp4 Is Essential for the Formation of the Vestibular Apparatus that Detects Angular Head Movements

Angular head movements in vertebrates are detected by the three semicircular canals of the inner ear and their associated sensory tissues, the cristae. Bone morphogenetic protein 4 (Bmp4), a member of the Transforming growth factor family (TGF-β), is conservatively expressed in the developing cristae in several species, including zebrafish, frog, chicken, and mouse. Using mouse models in which Bmp4 is conditionally deleted within the inner ear, as well as chicken models in which Bmp signaling is knocked down specifically in the cristae, we show that Bmp4 is essential for the formation of all three cristae and their associated canals. Our results indicate that Bmp4 does not mediate the formation of sensory hair and supporting cells within the cristae by directly regulating genes required for prosensory development in the inner ear such as Serrate1 (Jagged1 in mouse), Fgf10, and Sox2. Instead, Bmp4 most likely mediates crista formation by regulating Lmo4 and Msx1 in the sensory region and Gata3, p75Ngfr, and Lmo4 in the non-sensory region of the crista, the septum cruciatum. In the canals, Bmp2 and Dlx5 are regulated by Bmp4, either directly or indirectly. Mechanisms involved in the formation of sensory organs of the vertebrate inner ear are thought to be analogous to those regulating sensory bristle formation in Drosophila. Our results suggest that, in comparison to sensory bristles, crista formation within the inner ear requires an additional step of sensory and non-sensory fate specification

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Identification of Early Requirements for Preplacodal Ectoderm and Sensory Organ Development

Preplacodal ectoderm arises near the end of gastrulation as a narrow band of cells surrounding the anterior neural plate. This domain later resolves into discrete cranial placodes that, together with neural crest, produce paired sensory structures of the head. Unlike the better-characterized neural crest, little is known about early regulation of preplacodal development. Classical models of ectodermal patterning posit that preplacodal identity is specified by readout of a discrete level of Bmp signaling along a DV gradient. More recent studies indicate that Bmp-antagonists are critical for promoting preplacodal development. However, it is unclear whether Bmp-antagonists establish the proper level of Bmp signaling within a morphogen gradient or, alternatively, block Bmp altogether. To begin addressing these issues, we treated zebrafish embryos with a pharmacological inhibitor of Bmp, sometimes combined with heat shock-induction of Chordin and dominant-negative Bmp receptor, to fully block Bmp signaling at various developmental stages. We find that preplacodal development occurs in two phases with opposing Bmp requirements. Initially, Bmp is required before gastrulation to co-induce four transcription factors, Tfap2a, Tfap2c, Foxi1, and Gata3, which establish preplacodal competence throughout the nonneural ectoderm. Subsequently, Bmp must be fully blocked in late gastrulation by dorsally expressed Bmp-antagonists, together with dorsally expressed Fgf and Pdgf, to specify preplacodal identity within competent cells abutting the neural plate. Localized ventral misexpression of Fgf8 and Chordin can activate ectopic preplacodal development anywhere within the zone of competence, whereas dorsal misexpression of one or more competence factors can activate ectopic preplacodal development in the neural plate. Conversely, morpholino-knockdown of competence factors specifically ablates preplacodal development. Our work supports a relatively simple two-step model that traces regulation of preplacodal development to late blastula stage, resolves two distinct phases of Bmp dependence, and identifies the main factors required for preplacodal competence and specification

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice